Reducing gun violence in America.

نویسنده

  • Jens Ludwig
چکیده

The rate of gun violence in the United States substantially exceeds that of most other developed nations (1). Within the United States, gun deaths— particularly homicides—contribute to disparities in life expectancy between whites and minority groups, particularly African-Americans (2). Scientific progress in understanding how to address this problem has been limited in part because of limited research funding, which itself is largely due to the politics around guns in America (3). Therefore, the new article in PNAS by Luca et al. (4) addresses a critical topic. In their new paper, Luca et al. argue that the adoption of mandatory waiting periods for handgun purchases reduces gun homicides by about 17%. These estimated effects are enormous. Most remarkable of all is that the policy intervention that leads to these reductions in gun violence would seem to impose so few costs on society. In what follows, I first try to put the magnitude of Luca et al.’s estimates into context to help readers appreciate how large they actually are. Moreover, if the results are correct, they would imply that that almost all gun violence in America is committed by people with only transitory motivation. However, it is also possible that their estimates overstate somewhat the effects of waiting periods on gun violence. This is not intended as a criticism; the question they address is intrinsically difficult. Refining our understanding of this question is likely to require better data systems in the future. Their analysis also raises a natural follow-up question: If these laws are so helpful, why do only 16 states have such policies currently in place? The answer seems due in part to what has been called the “collective action problem” (5) that leads a small but highly motivated minority of the population to dominate the legislative process. This theory predicts that alternative paths to policy change, such as ballot referenda, should be more likely to result in additional firearm regulations like waiting period requirements. This prediction seems consistent with the experience of several states in recent years. The Effects of Waiting Periods on Gun Violence The system of gun regulation in the United States sets a relatively modest floor of federally required regulations that cities and states can then supplement on their own if they so choose. The federal Gun Control Act (GCA) of 1968 prohibited firearm acquisitions by minors, adults with felony convictions, illegal aliens, and those confined by court order due to mental illness. However, the GCA did not actually require federally licensed firearm dealers (FFLs) to do much to determine the purchaser’s eligibility. Luca et al. examine the consequences of the “natural experiment” that arises from many states choosing on their own to require FFLs to carry out background checks of potential handgun purchasers, Fig. 1. Differences in log gun homicide rates between states that did versus did not change waiting periods due to the Brady Act, by year before or after Brady. Source: Figure generously provided by Luca et al. and from reestimating their main equation with log gun homicide rate as the dependent variable, but replacing the binary indicator for whether a waiting period is in effect with a series of indicator variables for whether the state–year observation is X years before or after adoption of a waiting period (X from −4 to +4, shown along the x axis). The figure plots the estimates and 95% confidence intervals for the coefficients on these indicator variables, so the y axis is percentage change divided by 100.

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عنوان ژورنال:
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

دوره 114 46  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2017